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mike
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Post by mike »

Nickfletch70 wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:02 pm Also maybe the increase in headcount?
@Nickfletch70 - there is now a section (6) for headcount and employees.



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Nickfletch70
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Post by Nickfletch70 »

Thanks @mike looks great



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GlobalNomad
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Post by GlobalNomad »

thanks Mike and others for this work....its not just for newbies...great as an aide memoire for all of us..



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Mr_Chow
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Post by Mr_Chow »

@mike

Had a stab at what I think is pertinent. Use whatever you like, or not from it. Probably best to wait on the trading update for a DCF section as some additional guidance on the numbers would refine that.

Just thought might be worth digging out the table I did previously of the Revenue generation from a number of DAUs. I'll find that tomorrow, it's getting late.

Revenues
2019 and H1 of 2020 only generated relatively small testing revenues. During H2 2020 there was a step change with material revenues now being generated. Full year 2020 guidance was £1.5m trading update released December saying this is being exceeded. H1 was reported at £275k so in excess of £1.2m was achieved in H2 and this was significantly Q4 weighted from our tracking of campaigns.
Bids Revenue.png
H2 2020 estimated at £1.5m, 2021 revenues assumed steady growth through year to equal £9m full year guidance.

Cash Flows & Funding
Cash Burn.png
From financial information published, Bids are expected to be funded into H2 2021. Figures taken from accounts published in the interim results (18th Aug 2020 RNS) with estimate of H2 2020 & H1 2021 revenues and margin.
The cash burn may have increased a little with some recent recruitment however, offsetting this are the trading cash flows. It is the norm for advertisers to pay for a campaign before Bids pay the game developer their cut of the revenue. Assuming 1 month additional revenues on hand for this is circa £900k additional cash.

It is also worth noting that a significant proportion of the operating expense is the software development team in Latvia of circa 40 heads who have built the platform (SDK). Significant resource was deployed on this to be ready for the new console launches in late 2020. Not all of the cash burn is ongoing long term operating expense. Now the platform is live some of this cost could be trimmed in the future. Another option is the development of additional products (mentioned in the December 2020 trading updated). The additional products would in time bring their own incremental revenues to the business.

Funding
Should Bids chose to raise funds via a placement of shares (other options likely to be available). There is at least 6 months for the expected rapid acceleration of revenues and news flow to drive share price growth to the point this does not cause significant dilution of the 388m shares currently in issue. n.b. At the last round of funding £5m was raised, a similar amount (potentially less) should comfortably take Bids to break even.

Table shows the dilution of 1 share to a % of it's original value.
Dilution.png
Bids Revenue.png
Last edited by Mr_Chow on Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Post by Mr_Chow »

I don't know why the revenue graph is repeated. Ignore the bottom one, i've just cocked that up.



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mike
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Post by mike »

@Mr_Chow than you for this. Will read through and digest a bit more before adding but can you correct the cash flows image please? It looks like 2020 was used in both headings but second should be 2021 right?



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Post by Mr_Chow »

Done. If you want the file with the workings to edit just let me know.



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Post by mike »

@Mr_Chow - awesome work! - section 3 and 4 of the Wiki have been updated with this. If you have anything more, or @sectornitad has something to add / change, please add here and I'll adjust / enhance it further.



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Post by sectornitad »

@mike I'm working on revenue calcs vs inputs. soon....



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Post by Mr_Chow »

@mike we’re slightly inconsistent with the margins we’re quoting in revenue section.

You’ve used broker note forecast of 24%, I’ve used 2020 H1 reported figures of 28%. Something like the below added to your line probably easiest way to clear it up.

“Stifel forecast gross margins at 24%, H1 2020 reported figures exceeded this at 28%”



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