March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

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wilson63
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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by wilson63 »

Thanks all for the bite size updates I will get nowhere near it before 8 at least so finally
This is just the start Gla.



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by GlobalNomad »

@Cramond11

I haven't read the document yet but from your quote it would seem to me that they are already testing with a handful of games and ONLY THOSE will yield 30m DAU's.

As they start the process with other games there will be more DAU's added. IF a big player comes along that may be an additional 30m on its own.



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by Bradleybear »

I understand people will get upset when I say 10m. But everyone needs to realise that bids cant just cover cost. They need firepower to to push forward. Business will come forward to bids more so with cash in the account. Yes 6m does seem like what they want but I doubt it's what they will need. Sorry I just stopped being emotional with bids a while ago but we have around 10 weeks before we need cash. Bids will be releasing news before end of this month and after that they will initiate the raise phase which doesnt happen overnight. To look at it this way is best. The next set of funding will seem bad now and dilute the company maybe massivly but that being said in doing so will multiply the long term effect of bids! Bidstack is not a 1-2 year play it's more like a 3-5. If you can hold from now until 2022 imo you will see multiples of what you have now.



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by jimmy_stocks »

I think it's fair to say the Broker note hasn't been well received. A few in my Twitter groups not happy and feel misled. I think expectations firmly reset now. A shame for investors who brought in much higher than this, who are now trapped for awhile.

I can't remember the exact words but James stated on the last podcast that he did, something along the lines of 'we are still on course for 2020'. I wonder what course he was basing this on. I think the revenue of £1.5m for Q3 and Q4 detailed in the broker note is underwhelming to say the least, but you hope this is a conservative target that they overachieve, and go the opposite to what happened last year. I get the key barometer being new games and taking care of funding in the short term, but dilution to existing shareholders is obviously a big concern. I fully support them taking a long term view, but we were led to believe we were much closer to being cashflow positive than is now known.

Long term, lots of positives in terms of potential. Hopefully none of this virus sh1tstorm affects any games getting over the line, considering how long testing must have been going on. The win is as large as it's going to get but risks are matching that. Good risk / reward at 5p, but probably not for my 16/17p average.

Agree with other comments that hopefully they fundraise in increments and not raise more than is necessary, against the backdrop of sentiment being at its lowest ever. We need the advisory board and all involved in the placing to pull a blinder, otherwise it is going to be another kick in the nads to LTH's.



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by MGXYZ »

Whatever you do Jimmy, do not take your original holding cost and divide it by the current share price to see how many shares you could have held.

I do it daily and it makes me sick with regret.

I can’t disagree. It’s almost like reset has been pressed. There is nothing wrong with communicating the issues mentioned in the note to investors clearly on the journey as it builds trust and credibility. Time will always bring any problems to the surface.

The exciting part is that we could be in some pretty exciting games. Go back 12 months and I was expecting better fill rates on FM20... any AAA game announcement is beyond my initial hopes. Genuinely didn’t expect to be on the cusp of that so soon.

So it’s bitter sweet. I wish TTD was plug and play and the money was rolling in but I’m also glad at how far we’ve come on two of the four pillars. I’m a little scarred with expecting much going forward but I do think our rebased expectations could see us in a different place next year for the better.

What could that £5.9m deal at the end of FY19 have been in absence of games/DAUs etc?



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by MGXYZ »

100% fill rate at 18m DAUs (2021e exit rate) is £187,000,000 revenues.

Opportunity this year at 8.3m DAUs 100% filled is £65,000,000

So let’s say 30m DAUs at 100% fill is c. £312,000,000

Just trying to refocus my perspective.

Not expecting that and I’m happy with the assumption of 5% fill rates for two years to be conservative but I like to see the size of the prize too.

Not sure what happened to the FM £90m p.a figures banded about last year. I’m guessing we shifted from impressions as a key metric to DAUs which makes sense given the ‘scale’ required by big ad agencies.



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by mike »

I imagine there are still a lot of people that have not yet had time to fully read or digest the document yet. Looking forward to seeing more debate over the next few days



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by Neemoney »

Doesn't seem to acknowledge Frameplay as a potential competitor, surprising giving the quality of the demo video @mike posted.



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by mike »

Neemoney wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:26 pm
Doesn't seem to acknowledge Frameplay as a potential competitor, surprising giving the quality of the demo video @mike posted.
I noticed that too. Stifel should have stopped by this forum first ;)



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Re: March 2020 Stifel Broker Note - INITIAL Buy Rating @ 8.5p

Post by Girdz »

More I read the broker note the more I’m disappointed if truth be told. Few snippets of positive information however Seems BIDS are further away from the prize than portrayed.
One can only hope that BIDs outperform the broker note, and our shareholding’s are not massively diluted on the way.

Looks like they working hard on games inventory. Need those nailed down sooner rather than later



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