Current Share Price Talk

Discuss your opinions on the current share price and any technical trends / predictions
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Fudgerella30
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Fudgerella30 »

Decent buying this morning, looking good folks!



sectornitad
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

My back of the envelope calculations are:

DAUs - 10m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3 (so maximum 3 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 5%
Bids margin - 20% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game)

Bids gross profit (after paying developer, but before salaries, rent etc) would be:

(((10,000,000 * 3 * 0.05) / 1,000) * 8) * 0.2) * 365 = £876,000

The revenue target of £1.5m is top-line, so before the margin is applied (in other words literally how much cash flows into the bank). Using above inputs gives revenue of £4.38m annual. If we assume most of the FY2020 revenue will come in between Oct-Dec then the numbers above do fit giving us approx £1m revenue for Oct-Dec. In the right ball park.

Now let's tweak the inputs:

DAUs - 15m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 15%
Bids margin - 22% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game, but additional 5m DAUs at higher margin)

Revenue: £23m
Gross Profit: £5m


Really get motoring:

DAUs - 30m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 35%
Bids margin - 22% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game, but additional 5m DAUs at higher margin)

Revenue: £107m
Gross Profit: £23m
Costs: £10m
Profit before tax: £13m
Tax: £3m
Net Earnings: £10m
Earnings per share (388m shares + additional 62m to be issued = 450m): 2.2p
PE ratio of 20x (conservative if growth stock) gives share price: 44p


Shoot for the moon:

DAUs - 50m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 45%
Bids margin - 24%

Revenue: £230m
Gross Profit: £55m
Costs: £15m (increased to reflect more sales team, tech etc)
Profit before tax: £40m
Tax: £8m
Net Earnings: £32m
Earnings per share (388m shares + additional 62m to be issued = 450m): 7.1p
PE ratio of 15x (reduced to be ultra conservative) gives share price: 107p

And worth noting that the 'shoot for the moon' example above only uses fill rate of 45%.. If 90% were achieved (why not?) then double the share price. And this is still only 50m DAUs. There are a lot of people out there playing games. Then we haven't even factored any secondary viewing market or esports or other tie-ups.

Market cap currently a smidge under £17m.



Mlf51
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mlf51 »

sectornitad wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:05 am
My back of the envelope calculations are:

DAUs - 10m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3 (so maximum 3 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 5%
Bids margin - 20% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game)

Bids gross profit (after paying developer, but before salaries, rent etc) would be:

(((10,000,000 * 3 * 0.05) / 1,000) * 8) * 0.2) * 365 = £876,000

The revenue target of £1.5m is top-line, so before the margin is applied (in other words literally how much cash flows into the bank). Using above inputs gives revenue of £4.38m annual. If we assume most of the FY2020 revenue will come in between Oct-Dec then the numbers above do fit giving us approx £1m revenue for Oct-Dec. In the right ball park.

Now let's tweak the inputs:

DAUs - 15m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 15%
Bids margin - 22% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game, but additional 5m DAUs at higher margin)

Revenue: £23m
Gross Profit: £5m


Really get motoring:

DAUs - 30m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 35%
Bids margin - 22% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game, but additional 5m DAUs at higher margin)

Revenue: £107m
Gross Profit: £23m
Costs: £10m
Profit before tax: £13m
Tax: £3m
Net Earnings: £10m
Earnings per share (388m shares + additional 62m to be issued = 450m): 2.2p
PE ratio of 20x (conservative if growth stock) gives share price: 44p


Shoot for the moon:

DAUs - 50m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 45%
Bids margin - 24%

Revenue: £230m
Gross Profit: £55m
Costs: £15m (increased to reflect more sales team, tech etc)
Profit before tax: £40m
Tax: £8m
Net Earnings: £32m
Earnings per share (388m shares + additional 62m to be issued = 450m): 7.1p
PE ratio of 15x (reduced to be ultra conservative) gives share price: 107p

And worth noting that the 'shoot for the moon' example above only uses fill rate of 45%.. If 90% were achieved (why not?) then double the share price. And this is still only 50m DAUs. There are a lot of people out there playing games. Then we haven't even factored any secondary viewing market or esports or other tie-ups.

Market cap currently a smidge under £17m.
Gets my vote for feelgood post of the month



sectornitad
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

865k shares bought @ 4.51p at 16:27pm

Nice big chunk sneaking in just before the bell...

almost 0.25% of the company



sectornitad
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

....hopefully the 865k was just bought by the husband of the woman who's job it is at the RNS office to type up tomorrow morning's news announcements ;) ;)



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Mr_Chow
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mr_Chow »

Some gender stereotyping here I feel. Could be the husband typing and the wife trading. :roll:



sectornitad
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

I’m not woke and don’t intend on ever being woke. :-)



throwingmuses
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by throwingmuses »

sectornitad wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:05 am
My back of the envelope calculations are:

DAUs - 10m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3 (so maximum 3 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 5%
Bids margin - 20% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game)

Bids gross profit (after paying developer, but before salaries, rent etc) would be:

(((10,000,000 * 3 * 0.05) / 1,000) * 8) * 0.2) * 365 = £876,000

The revenue target of £1.5m is top-line, so before the margin is applied (in other words literally how much cash flows into the bank). Using above inputs gives revenue of £4.38m annual. If we assume most of the FY2020 revenue will come in between Oct-Dec then the numbers above do fit giving us approx £1m revenue for Oct-Dec. In the right ball park.

Now let's tweak the inputs:

DAUs - 15m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 15%
Bids margin - 22% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game, but additional 5m DAUs at higher margin)

Revenue: £23m
Gross Profit: £5m


Really get motoring:

DAUs - 30m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 35%
Bids margin - 22% (assuming majority of 10m DAUs is a Big Game, but additional 5m DAUs at higher margin)

Revenue: £107m
Gross Profit: £23m
Costs: £10m
Profit before tax: £13m
Tax: £3m
Net Earnings: £10m
Earnings per share (388m shares + additional 62m to be issued = 450m): 2.2p
PE ratio of 20x (conservative if growth stock) gives share price: 44p


Shoot for the moon:

DAUs - 50m
Maximum ads possible per DAU - 3.5 (so maximum 3.5 impressions per user per day)
CPM - £8
Fill Rate - 45%
Bids margin - 24%

Revenue: £230m
Gross Profit: £55m
Costs: £15m (increased to reflect more sales team, tech etc)
Profit before tax: £40m
Tax: £8m
Net Earnings: £32m
Earnings per share (388m shares + additional 62m to be issued = 450m): 7.1p
PE ratio of 15x (reduced to be ultra conservative) gives share price: 107p

And worth noting that the 'shoot for the moon' example above only uses fill rate of 45%.. If 90% were achieved (why not?) then double the share price. And this is still only 50m DAUs. There are a lot of people out there playing games. Then we haven't even factored any secondary viewing market or esports or other tie-ups.

Market cap currently a smidge under £17m.
Fascinating to see the variation when inputs are tweaked. Highlights the size of the prize....as a number of great recent posts have done, also from chow and others.... Just wanted to add that the promise of near 6m revs last year had this soaring over 60m, so if, and it's the big if, they can get things snowballing at the tail end of the year and hit 1.5m, then the estimated 9m for 2021 becomes very much believable to the market. When or if that happens it's a whole new ball game. For this space in this sector, at this early stage, I think we'll be moving along at around 10 times expected revs, as a rough guide.

Your calculations look good with a PE ratio ×80 ;)
Bet ×80 would be pretty close if we get to figures like those without being swallowed up. Can't see it though, with all that's been going on, feels as if we're being groomed for M&A activity!



Neemoney
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Neemoney »

Another little top up 66,666 @4.48. Let the news flow start ;)



Fudgerella30
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Fudgerella30 »

Neemoney wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:55 am
Another little top up 66,666 @4.48. Let the news flow start ;)
Well done sir or madam!

I think the next few months are going to be very exciting for us bids shareholders!



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