Current Share Price Talk

Discuss your opinions on the current share price and any technical trends / predictions
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Mr_Chow
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mr_Chow »

Nickfletch70 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:55 pm
Or is the confidence on the back of @Mr_Chow ??
It Chow obvs!

More I think about it the more clear it is how the broker note undercooked the size of the market. The assumption of 5 ads per session?! Not 5 ads served but 5 impressions maximum and of those 5 only 5% would be sold.

In a stadium game the ads cycle, there’s way more than 5 cycles in an average gaming session.

Watch dirt rally trailer, stacks of ads again no way max number of impressions per gaming session is just 5.

Amazed that a broker note was built on fag packet maths with erroneous assumptions.

Imagine there’s a bit of softening expectations here, don’t say you’ll hit £5m in H2 with a risk you’ll experience some delays and report £3m as a failed target. Play safe, tell the market £1.5m and double it.

@mike is there a way to embed an excel file?
People can have a play with the numbers themselves.



lukehold
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by lukehold »

Thanks @Mr_Chow

Where did the £7 CPM figure come from? the broker note? Just for balance Admix advertises a rate of Upto $1.50 CPM to developers, this could be their share and in fact an example @bidtastic found worked out at $0.10 CPM for a game developer if I remember correctly.




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Mr_Chow
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mr_Chow »

£7 CPM in broker note.



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by lukehold »

Great thanks, interesting piece.



dreammachine
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by dreammachine »

Mr_Chow wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:57 pm
Nickfletch70 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:55 pm
Or is the confidence on the back of @Mr_Chow ??
It Chow obvs!

More I think about it the more clear it is how the broker note undercooked the size of the market. The assumption of 5 ads per session?! Not 5 ads served but 5 impressions maximum and of those 5 only 5% would be sold.

In a stadium game the ads cycle, there’s way more than 5 cycles in an average gaming session.

Watch dirt rally trailer, stacks of ads again no way max number of impressions per gaming session is just 5.

Amazed that a broker note was built on fag packet maths with erroneous assumptions.

Imagine there’s a bit of softening expectations here, don’t say you’ll hit £5m in H2 with a risk you’ll experience some delays and report £3m as a failed target. Play safe, tell the market £1.5m and double it.

@mike is there a way to embed an excel file?
People can have a play with the numbers themselves.

@Mr_Chow if they announce £3m for the full year, when they’ve made £250k from the first half, I’ll probably get the Bidstack logo tattooed on me! That is one hell of a second half weighting.

After last year, I’ll just be happy if they hit the £1.5m target they’ve set. Deliver what they said they would deliver. That’s all I ask.



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by mike »

@Mr_Chow - easiest way to embed is by adding it to a google drive, getting the public link and sharing that. It auto embeds content... or PM me with the attachment and I'll add it to the Bidlievers share.



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

@Mr_Chow thanks for your post. I’m pretty sure that the new category calculations will have some sort of time bound for impressions. So in case of a racing game the same ad will only impress once per time slot even if the car wizzes round the track ten times. But still agree that the scalability of this offering is immense.



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Mr_Chow
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mr_Chow »

@dreammachine

Made up numbers for illustrative purposes only. Maybe should have gone with tell market 1.5m and do 1.6m.

Don’t forget though, test spend only in H1, significant scale increases mentioned more inventory coming on tap and pent up demand side interest.

You can get to some very big monthly numbers with 1m DAUs and they expected 8m!



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

Yep big numbers indeed. And for Big Games the margin Bids takes will likely be lower but for esports the CPM could be higher due to secondary view market.



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Mr_Chow
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mr_Chow »

sectornitad wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:01 pm
@Mr_Chow thanks for your post. I’m pretty sure that the new category calculations will have some sort of time bound for impressions. So in case of a racing game the same ad will only impress once per time slot even if the car wizzes round the track ten times. But still agree that the scalability of this offering is immense.
Did ponder how best to work these. My rationale was it’s hard to read most ads on trackside at speed so go with a low number that were visible long enough to register with the gamer.

At the end of the day the advertiser is only going to pay if they get value. 1 ad for a second works, 10 ads for 0.1 secs each probably doesn’t sort of thing.

I think overall numbers are very conservative so 100% agree scaleability is massive.



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