Current Share Price Talk

Discuss your opinions on the current share price and any technical trends / predictions
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Mr_Chow
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mr_Chow »

Today’s spike potentially due to indicator trading. Purple line went above orange (or something, Chow colour blind) on MACD.

Either that or some leaks, can’t find a reason for 8th of July spike so wondering if some folk know more than others.

Always going to be an overhang after placing, should be winding down now. A lot of people aware of Bids but potentially being cautious from getting burned last year. Can see them jumping back on the band wagon as soon as games break cover.

At current trading volumes really wont take much change in sentiment to start the ball rolling.



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mike
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by mike »

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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Bidfry »

Quietest I have see the bids chats!
Might change my vote to boring.
Hoping for news soon and a rise in SP as I have seen a new mountain bike I like and they can be surprisingly pricey



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

Image



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Mr_Chow
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mr_Chow »

Always darkest before the dawn...

5 months left this year, IAB gold standard now unlocks advertising budgets previously out of reach, testing phases complete with some major brands moving to significantly larger campaigns, new inventory coming on tap.



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

The question everyone is undoubtedly asking is when the news flow starts and the wider market sits up and takes notice, what would be a sensible re-rated price and what will be the signs of exuberance and hype and an overblown price.

For some reason I have 50p tops for a sensible re-rate and anything in excess of 80p as too strong for this stage in the company's development. I think longer term (3+ years) there is no reason Bidstack couldn't be a billion pound company with SP of £3+.

50p would value the company at just under £200m, which based on nothing other than gut instinct, feels about right given then company has inventory of 10m DAUs and strong agency/brand demand. At £200m cap it would no longer be micro-cap and hopefully other institutions would then take a more detailed look too.

What do you think @Mr_Chow?



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Nickfletch70 »

I have similar thought @mike - I guess outside games ( where we have an inkling ) we just have no idea what has been going on so its difficult to second guess.

Feels right but could be anything as a re-rate!



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by sectornitad »

... a bit more buying coming back in and hitting the Bid price quoted. 100k, 250k trades and a bunch of smaller ones too.



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Mr_Chow
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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Mr_Chow »

@sectornitad

Chow looked at metrics behind revenue. Games news = revenue coming on tap. Tech company and rapid growth gets to a very large market cap very quickly.

Basic approach is you need to take each category of game and look at sensible assumptions of ads and then get to a number of impressions possible and then it’s fulfilment rates, cost per impression and end up with a revenue per DAU for each game type.

The revenue number gets eye watering very quickly...

Circuit based
Assume someone plays for 10 laps on average
Assume there are 4 advertising spaces per lap
Total number of impressions possible is 40, at 5% fulfilment that is 2 ads served. At £7/1000 ads that is 1.4p per DAU per day.

Stadium Based
Assume all advertising space is sold as one ad.
Average duration of game is 30 mins
Assume 1 impression is 10 seconds in duration
Total number of impressions possible is 180, at 5% at £7/1000 = 6.3p per DAU per day

Open World
Average duration on game 45 mins
Assume a player sees an add space every 2 mins
Total number of impressions possible 22.5, at 20% fulfilment (higher due to less ad spaces available) and £7/1000 we get 3.15p per DAU per day.

Assumptions are just that, guesses that I’ve kept on the low end of what is possible to be cautious. If someone wants to play dirt rally and count the ad spaces per lap or measure cycle times in a stadium game and ads seen over a time period in an open world we can refine the model.

Genuinely amazed by the results :D . With the above revenue per DAU per day for:-
Circuit based 250k DAUs
Stadium 250k DAUs
Open World 300k DAUs

Annual revenue for above is £10.5m this is for just 800k DAUs. Bids have forecast 8m DAUs by year end. I doubt we’ll be doing 10x my calc by year end, unlikely they’ll be selling at those fulfilment rates to all DAUs from day 1 of a game going live. Its more to show what is possible in ‘business as usual mode’ with full programmatic selling possible after a few months of getting established.

As to SP and market cap. As soon as this is proven to work, by that I mean big brands bought into it (already happened) and adopted by game developers (starting to happen). Even just one significant title could re rate the company. I’d be surprised if we didn’t get to 30p by Christmas and double that by mid 2021. Could easily see AIM over egging the valuation and it going higher. All we need are some of the games we think are in the pipeline to drop for this to happen.

N.b. broker note had some errors in the maths when I looked in more detail. If you want to check this go with your own impression calcs and CPMs. Don’t use their business model table.



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Re: Current Share Price Talk

Post by Nickfletch70 »

Great piece of work @Mr_Chow thank you

Have we seen the sea of blue in trades this afternoon all?

Something brewing??

Or is the confidence on the back of @Mr_Chow ??

:D



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